Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Opportunities in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

by Peter R. Geyer, Managing Principal, Geyer Global Partners


In February of last year (2013), United States President  Barack Obama stated in his State of the Union address that his country would be launching negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (“T-TIP”) with the European Union.  The aim of T-TIP is to:


  • Eliminate or reduce conventional barriers to trade in goods, such as tariffs and tariff-rate quotas;
  • Eliminate, reduce, or prevent barriers to trade in goods, services, and investment;
  • Enhance compatibility of regulations and standards;
  • Eliminate, reduce, or prevent unnecessary non-tariff barriers such as regulatory disharmonies; and
  • Enhance cooperation for the development of rules and principles regarding global issues of common concern (e.g. environment, labor, intellectual property rights) and for the achievement of shared global economic goals.[i]

While the negotiations for T-TIP are anticipated to conclude as early as the end of 2014, both sides of the Atlantic are notably keen to reach a deal.  After all, while the existing tariffs and trade barriers are relatively low – averaging less than 3% on traded goods – the total volume of bilateral trade between the United States and the European Union countries is massive, generating trade flows of approximately $2.7 billion every single day in 2012.[ii]  Even with the current tariff and regulatory regime, European Union exports in goods to the United States in 2012 were $380.8 billion, up a staggering 67% from 2000.[iii]

While much of this negotiation will look at the trade in manufactured goods, and while many of the anticipated benefits of a successful T-TIP negotiation revolve around the elimination of duplicate or conflicting regulation of goods on either side of the Atlantic, what I personally find most interesting are the areas that touch on services, investment, and regulation surrounding intellectual property rights and cultural protection. 

One only needs to walk down the street in my home city of Berlin, Germany, to see legions of software development firms that are either based in the United States and have offices here, or that are based here and are looking to expand into the United States by courting venture capital investors there.  A prime example of this is European music sharing company SoundCloud.  This company has been written about extensively already by others, and will no doubt be written about again by me, because it stands out as a true European success story in the information age, and because their operations are run only two blocks from where Geyer Global Partners is located.   Founded in 2007 in Stockholm, Sweden, by a Swedish sound engineer and a Swedish musician as a tool to virtually share music among collaborating artists, SoundCloud firmly established itself in Berlin, Germany, soon afterward -- where it has quickly risen to become the world’s preeminent music sharing service.  Now with over 40 million registered users and as many as 200 million unique users worldwide, SoundCloud has most notably signed a Series-C funding agreement with Silicon Valley venture group Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers for a reported $50 million in early 2012.
 
SoundCloud is not alone.  Other notable European start-up standouts in Europe include barcoo, a Berlin-based product research application featuring an integrated barcode scanner that has over 1 million users; XING, a Hamburg-based social and professional networking site that is a more Euro-centric version of LinkedIn that has around 14 million users; and OpenSynergy, another Berlin-based company that develops products that integrate automotive onboard software systems.
While these are all very different software and service companies, they all share a European home, they all are ripe for (or have already received) investments from United States-based venture capital companies, they all have products that would potentially be very appealing in the United States marketplace, and -- particularly in the cases of XING and OpenSynergy -- are prefect for strategic partnerships or mergers with existing United States companies.  If T-TIP is able to reduce or eliminate barriers to trade in services and investment, more companies like these will be able to gain access to the funds and relationships to help them grow and thrive.

The other area of discussion that I find of particular personal interest relates to regulation surrounding intellectual property rights and cultural protection.  There are a couple of issues here worth noting.  While the United States and Europe share strong intellectual property rights protections, the idea behind their inclusion in the T-TIP negotiations is to attempt to set a world standard that can then be copied in other regional trade negotiations.  Particularly in the startup realm, anything that better codifies and enforces intellectual property rights is a good thing.  Negotiations over regulations concerning protection of cultural or linguistic heritage are a more complex issue. 

Two notable, but not unique, examples of this are regulations concerning product naming and regulations protecting indigenous cultural products from being overwhelmed by globalized mass-media.  In the first case, Europe maintains strict rules regarding the naming of regional products, so that “Parmesan Cheese” is a regulated name that can only refer to cheese made by the Parmigiano-Reggiano cheese consortium, and “Champagne” is a regulated name that can only refer to wine made in the Champagne region of France.  At the same time, the United States generally does not adhere to the same strict naming restrictions for parmesan cheese, while it generally does with increasing consistency for champagne.  T-TIP would seek to make regulations in this regard more consistent across the Atlantic.
 
In the second case, the European Union’s Audiovisual Media Services Directive (“AVMSD”), as it currently exists, is designed to counteract a trade media content deficit between the European Union and the United States of between €6 and €7 billion per year.[iv]  It does this by requiring European Union broadcasters to reserve a majority of their broadcast time (excluding the time appointed to news, sports events, games, advertising, teletext services and teleshopping) for European-produced content, and that “on demand” broadcasters must dedicate significant resources to the production and acquisition of European content.  Of this, at least 10% of broadcast time (with the same exclusions listed previously) must be recent (within 5 years) productions by “independent” producers.
Needless to say, with €6 to €7 billion per year on the line, audiovisual media producers in the United States are very keen to eliminate as many of these barriers as possible.  What the European Union would get in return for removing these barriers is less clear.  That having been said, an interesting 2010 report by the Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis[v] uses empirical data to demonstrate that highly regulated and protected industries have a strong tendency to adapt more slowly to changes in consumer tastes and other economic imperatives than more lightly regulated and protected industries.  If we can take this deduction at face-value, rather than providing an easier opportunity for American mass culture to overwhelm more locally produced media, perhaps the lowering of trade restrictions on audiovisual content is a blessing for smaller European producers in that it will compel them to be more flexible and responsive – not necessarily to the world marketplace but to their own preexisting markets.

In support of this idea, I am reminded of the 1996 Telecommunications Act in the United States, which eliminated many of the existing restrictions on the number of television and radio stations a single company could own.  In response to this deregulation, there was a massive wave of consolidation, in which many small broadcasters were bought out (many making extremely handsome profits on the sale in the meantime).  One of the driving principles behind this consolidation was that large group owners could create economies of scale by eliminating duplicative facilities and duplicative tasks across multiple stations, and even by “centralcasting” programming created in one or two broadcast hubs and then sending them to their dozens (or even hundreds) of stations nationwide.  This consolidation was admittedly an extraordinarily painful time.  There were vast layoffs in sales, engineering, on-air talent, and even management.

Over time, though, an interesting thing happened.  These new large group owners realized that by eliminating everything that made their stations “local,” they were eliminating the very reasons why consumers viewed or listened to their stations in the first place.  With the Internet, cable television, and satellite broadcasting, nationwide or worldwide content is easily and relatively cheaply available to all consumers in the developed world.  But only local broadcasters could speak to local consumers in a manner that was meaningful and that met their needs.  Over the course of ten years, as I visited radio stations in small and medium sized markets, I saw them go from empty studios that served only to rebroadcast content sent from New York or Los Angeles, to being re-staffed with new talent broadcasting new and more relevant content.

This rather long anecdote is meant only to describe how the loss of local and regional regulations on protecting content is not necessarily destructive in the medium- to long-term.  In fact, with distribution of audiovisual content now easier than it has been at any point in the history of the world, producers of high-quality regionally or linguistically specific content, distributed by aggressive entrepreneurs, could have potentially significant opportunities in a de-regulated trans-Atlantic marketplace.  With substantial French-speaking populations in Maine and Louisiana, with substantial Polish-speaking populations in Pennsylvania and Illinois, with substantial German-speaking populations in Wisconsin and Texas, and even with a substantial Slovene-speaking population in Ohio, the United States has a large and mostly untouched consumer base for niche non-English European-produced audiovisual content.

Deregulation on the scale of what is being discussed with T-TIP can potentially be very disruptive to well-established patterns of producer and consumer behavior.  However, with its growing entrepreneurial spirit, and with the incredible creativity and innovation of its culturally and linguistically diverse products, the European Union has more to gain -- in terms of new opportunities for growth through increased investment from and expanded trade with the United States -- than it has to lose, in terms of protected industries having to face new competition.

For more information on how Geyer Global Partners can help your business to "Go Global," visit our website at www.geyerglobal.de.


[i] United States-European Union High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth.  Final Report:  High Level Working Group on Jobs and Growth.”  February 11, 2013.
[ii] Office of the United States Trade Representative.  “European Union,” http://www.ustr.gov.
[iii] Office of the United States Trade Representative.  “European Union,” http://www.ustr.gov.
[iv] European Commission. “Audiovisual and Media Policies.”  http://www.ec.europa.eu.   April 12, 2012.
[v] Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis.  “The Economic Effects of the Regulatory Burden.”  Growth Analysis: Östersund, 2010.